Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 23.378289 25.677370 28.260729 31.413063 35.204930 39.685885 45.487687
2025-02-02 20.138760 23.123567 26.754520 31.620319 38.182755 47.088824 60.848714
2025-02-09 18.007480 21.363884 25.700681 31.970971 41.320731 55.832817 83.134610
2025-02-16 16.380626 19.919125 24.709284 32.076656 44.066431 65.230247 114.819077
2025-02-23 14.990732 18.562720 23.570072 31.652354 45.792307 73.823310 156.750350
2025-03-02 14.006791 17.624206 22.856469 31.688499 48.270571 85.457002 233.940619
2025-03-09 13.132418 16.733241 22.072998 31.423922 50.079400 97.032980 364.492382
2025-03-16 12.381710 15.942095 21.333372 31.077459 51.603227 109.382283 632.370875
2025-03-23 11.745009 15.259995 20.681005 30.760301 53.093879 123.467350 1422.050252
2025-03-30 11.215946 14.694928 20.152708 30.576889 54.852893 141.140430 9472.507196
2025-04-06 10.660295 14.046856 19.422310 29.884022 55.136586 153.709608 NaN
2025-04-13 10.506179 14.010454 19.712503 31.270064 61.514202 211.183998 NaN
2025-04-20 10.090768 13.536075 19.211785 30.956151 63.036404 246.502518 NaN
2025-04-27 9.772610 13.198278 18.922643 31.058505 65.980351 309.585423 NaN
2025-05-04 9.507125 12.928826 18.731080 31.348837 69.776893 415.648841 NaN
2025-05-11 9.235851 12.632803 18.464747 31.426442 72.946904 564.891550 NaN
2025-05-18 8.924981 12.253598 18.014575 31.004579 74.074606 713.184170 NaN
2025-05-25 8.691185 11.991474 17.764408 31.033642 77.155953 1081.758565 NaN
2025-06-01 8.441689 11.690052 17.417539 30.775328 78.949680 1641.067397 NaN
2025-06-08 8.200901 11.392315 17.057964 30.439386 80.307408 2707.820787 NaN
2025-06-15 7.979021 11.117303 16.725155 30.132396 81.741071 5763.406255 NaN
2025-06-22 7.784540 10.881252 16.453947 29.954899 83.834920 44364.722416 NaN
2025-06-29 7.551910 10.569962 16.016809 29.285229 83.046778 NaN NaN